Seoul Gazette - US markets higher, Europe lower before US inflation, ECB meeting

Investors will be poring over US consumer price data to be released Wednesday after the last two inflation reports came in hotter than expected, delaying expectations of interest rate cuts. Then Thursday, the European Central Bank meets to discuss interest rate policy for the eurozone.

"Market participants are hopeful the CPI data will calm the sticky inflation angst and leave the Fed on course to cut rates in June," said Patrick J. O'Hare, an analyst at Briefing.com.

The inflation news has the "ability to swing market sentiment, as does the earnings guidance that will be flowing out of the first quarter earnings reporting period," he said.

US indexes all opened higher, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way. In Europe, Paris and Frankfurt were lower, while London was a touch higher, lifted by energy major BP which rose 1.5 percent after issuing an upbeat quarterly report.

European markets remains more focused on the interest outlook than their US counterpart because they lack the large tech stocks that have underpinned US stock indexes.

European "investors continue to price in the prospect of US interest rates staying higher for longer," said David Morrison, analyst at Trade Nation."

With US consumer prices picking up in January and February, the jobs market still strong and the US economy in rude health, traders have regularly rolled back their forecasts for monetary policy easing this year, and some are even contemplating no cuts before 2025.

"At the beginning of this year markets were pricing in six 25 basis point cuts: Now it’s nearer to two or three," said Trade Nation's Morrison. "There have been some FOMC members who feel that the recent stalling of the decline in inflation, together with robust economic data releases, means that it’s far too early to consider cutting rates."

While the ECB is almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, analysts are divided over whether the European bank will wait for its US counterpart to cut first, or if they will be spurred into action by Europe's sputtering economies.

In Asia, the Tokyo market was boosted by a weaker yen, which helps exports but which is approaching the 152-per-dollar level at which many think could spark an intervention by Japanese authorities.

The end of the week also sees the start of the US earnings season, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup up first. Next week will see some European luxury groups report, including LVMH, Richemont, Burburry and EssilorLuxottica.

- Key figures around 1330 GMT -

New York - Dow: UP 0.1 percent at 38,934.42 points

New York - S&P 500: UP 0.3 percent at 5,218.93

New York - Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.6 percent at 16,345.01

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 7,958.28

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.4 at 8,087.84

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.6 percent at 18,201.81

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.4 percent at 5,026.85

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 1.1 percent at 39,773.13 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.6 percent at 16,828.07 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,048.54 (close)

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 151.73 yen from 151.82 yen on Monday

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0884 from $1.0859

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2708 from $1.2655

Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.66 pence from 85.80 pence

Brent North Sea Crude: UNCHANGED at $90.41 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.1 percent at $86.35 per barrel

burs-gv/cw

F.Kang--SG